Analysts slash 2025 SET price target

Analysts have already cut their year-end 2025 target for the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index, only days into the trading year, to 1,556 points from 1,614, citing continued foreign capital outflows and political uncertainties as primary concerns.

Sombat Narawutthichai, secretary-general of the Investment Analysts Association (IAA), said the majority of analysts and fund managers from 26 companies surveyed by the IAA expect the SET index to fluctuate between 1,322 and 1,581 points this year.

They identified foreign capital outflows as the most significant negative factor for the year, followed by domestic political issues, international political factors, and the reduction or termination of quantitative easing measures by major global economies.

In 2024, foreign investors divested nearly 150 billion baht worth of Thai stocks and they may remain on the sidelines this year.

However, analysts expressed con­- fidence that Thailand’s economic mechanisms, bolstered by government investment and a fully utilised investment budget, alongside a booming tourism sector, will drive economic recovery, he said.

The Thai stock market is expected to trend positively in the first three months of 2025, with the index finishing at 1,449 points by the end of the quarter. Key factors to monitor include the inauguration and policies of US president-elect Donald Trump, Thailand’s economic stimulus, government investments, and a downward trend in interest rates.

Regarding the Monetary Policy Committee’s policy rate, 54% of respondents expect the rate to fall to 2% by year-end. Some 22% expect a reduction to 1.75%, 17% foresee the rate remaining at 2.25%, and 4% predict a dip to 1.50%.

Earnings per share (EPS) for listed companies are projected to average 84.61 baht this year, down from 89.91 baht in previous estimates, with an expected EPS growth of 12.2%.

The IAA recommends a diversified investment portfolio for 2025, with 29.6% allocated to foreign stock funds, 22.5% to Thai stocks or Thai stock funds, 22% to bond funds, 10.7% to cash and short-term deposits, 8.1% to gold or gold funds, 6.9% to property funds or real estate investment trusts, and 0.2% to other assets like Bitcoin.

For overseas investments, analysts recommend focusing on US stock funds, emphasising artificial intelligence technology and selective Asian funds, including those in China, South Korea and Vietnam. In Thailand, more investment is advised in the retail, construction, service, tourism, technology and communication sectors, while reducing exposure to the automotive, energy and petrochemical industries.

According to the IAA, the top four stock picks are: Airports of Thailand (AOT), which is poised to benefit from strong tourism with estimated foreign arrivals of 40 million this year; Advanced Info Service (ADVANC), thanks to a continued recovery due to lower costs, consistent dividend payments and advantages from data centre investments; Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS), which should gain from Thailand’s ageing population and an expected increase in foreign patients; and CPALL based on government stimulus efforts.

Analysts also urge the government to implement policies that boost the economy and ensure efficient budget utilisation. The recommendations include accelerating infrastructure investments to enhance economic growth potential, promoting new S-curve industries, encouraging foreign investment in emerging sectors, launching measures to lift tourism, and reducing corporate taxes, said Mr Sombat.

There should also be initiatives to assist economically burdened groups, such as individual income tax reductions, debt relief measures, and a focus on education development, he said.

credit : https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/investment/2935217/analysts-slash-2025-set-price-target